New referrals matter
If no new qualifying customers are added, the active referral base cannot grow indefinitely.
Growth model
Recurring income depends on acquisition and retention.
A serious referral business is not just about getting new customers. Model what happens when new qualifying referrals and customer loss interact over time.
12-month scenario
Change the assumptions. See the math.
This tool does not predict conversions, customer retention or earnings. It only calculates the scenario you enter.
Month 3 active-referral math—
Month 6 active-referral math—
Month 12 active-referral math—
Month 12 commission math—
What the model teaches
Retention changes the shape of recurring revenue.
Customer quality matters too
A channel that creates fewer long-lived customers can be more valuable than a channel that creates many short-lived promotion-driven signups.
Commission per referral varies
Product mix, discounts, billing events, refunds, cancellations and affiliate-specific terms can change the average commission represented by one active referral.
Build a system, not a spike
The serious-business path is about finding acquisition channels that can be repeated while the referred customers continue receiving enough value to stay.
Use it responsibly
Scenario planning is not an earnings forecast.
The model makes no assumption about how many people will click, buy, remain active or qualify for commission. The new-referral and churn values come from you.
Once the program has enough real cohort data, partners can use their own historical performance to build better planning scenarios. DotMoose should not turn population averages or top-partner results into a promise about a new affiliate.
If you are just starting, use the regular commission calculator and first-referral playbook before treating retention modelling as a useful planning tool.
Serious path
Use the model inside a 90-day operating system.
Acquisition, useful content, client workflows and retention measurement work better together than a single viral campaign.